DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND RURAL ELECTRIFICATION ACCESS IN SOUTH-SOUTH NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM A BINARY LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64415/jams.v1i2.76Keywords:
rural electrification, solar mini-grids, solar home systems, binary logistic regression, energy policy, Nigeria, distributed generation, renewable energy investment, South-South NigeriaAbstract
Access to reliable and affordable electricity remains a critical development challenge in rural communities across South-South Nigeria, despite significant renewable energy endowments. This study investigates the determinants of household electricity access in rural local government areas (LGAs) of the South-South geopolitical zone, with particular emphasis on distributed renewable energy technologies, specifically solar mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). Drawing on a cross-sectional dataset of 290 rural LGAs and employing a binary logistic regression model, the study examines how renewable energy investment (REI), mini-grid installed capacity (MGC), SHS adoption rates, and a composite policy support index (PSI) influence the probability of having access to electricity. Control variables include population density (PD), mean household income (HI), and proximity to the national grid (GP). Results indicate that REI, MGC, SHS, and PSI are statistically significant positive predictors of electricity access. At the same time, grid proximity exerts a significant negative effect, confirming that geographic remoteness reduces the probability of access but that distributed technologies meaningfully attenuate this disadvantage. The model achieved an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.891 and an overall classification accuracy of 82.4%, demonstrating strong predictive power. Findings underscore the strategic imperative for Nigeria’s energy policy framework to prioritise the deployment of distributed renewable energy, strengthen the Rural Electrification Fund, and align state-level energy policies with the Electricity Act 2023 to accelerate universal electricity access in off-grid communities.
Keywords: rural electrification; solar mini-grids; solar home systems; binary logistic regression; energy policy; Nigeria; distributed generation; renewable energy investment; South-South Nigeria
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